Not Throwing Away My Shot
A CDC advisory committee has issued its recommendation for prioritizing who is next to receive scarce Covid-19 vaccines. Those over 75 and some first responders are up next, followed by over-65s, more essential workers, and younger adults with preconditions.
The ACIP committee voted 13 to 1 to forward this recommendation to the CDC, which is likely to accept it. The one member who voted against objected to bifurcating the category of “older Americans,” noting that, medically speaking, Covid-19 is not all that different in a person who is 65 years old vs. 75.
| group | who is in it? | how many? |
most will get first shot by… |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-a | health care workers nursing home residents, staff |
20M 4M |
December |
| 1-b | over 75 teachers first responders grocery workers transit workers other front-line |
20M 3M 5M 7M 1M 14M |
January- February |
| 1-c | over 65 younger w/preconditions other essential workers |
30M 42M 57M |
February- April |
The three priority groups identified thus far account for about 200 million people. The supply of vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna should cover first shots for about half of those through the end of February.
Operation Warp Speed expects to ship about 20M doses in December, 30M in January, and 50M in February. I have not seen any projections beyond that; it depends in part on whether any other vaccines are authorized in the spring.
The final decisions about allocations will rest with the states.
Here is coverage so far of the committee’s recommendation.
0-a Administrators
True. They weren’t in the ACIP’s plan though.
In my case, not only does my state have a different priority list from the feds, my county has its own priority list that’s different from both the federal and state lists. The “A” in ACIP is “advisory,” and it looks to me like their priority list is being taken as advice only.
The county revised their list in the past week, and I’ve been moved up from phase 4 (general public) to phase 2 (at increased risk of disease but not of serious disease). That phase 2 also includes “marginalized populations” (basically people of color) plus staff and occupants of prisons and homeless shelters. This week’s revision also removed the uninsured and low-income from the list of “marginalized populations.”
All in all, I’d estimate that Phase 2 encompasses about 40% of the county’s adult population. It’s going to be a long time before we get to Phase 3 (students, frontline workers in essential industries, and government employees, not at special risk).
I haven’t been able to get any real information about Minnesota’s priorities, or how they might break down at levels more local than that. According to ACIP I should be in 1-c (65 ≤ n ≤ 75). And I have a qualifying condition. But, I haven’t seen any indication that a medical condition plus age gets any priority consideration beyond the age alone.